Israel and Iran have waged a shadow war for years, mostly in neighboring Syria. They have largely avoided direct confrontations, with Iran operating against Israel through proxy groups. That all changed after an April 1 airstrike killed two Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital of Damascus, the beginning of an unprecedented direct confrontation between the two nations. Although Israel did not comment, Iran blamed Israel for the strike and vowed revenge.

Iran responded with its first-ever direct attack on Israel, launching over 300 missiles and attack drones on April 14. Israel, working with a U.S.-led international coalition, said it intercepted 99 percent of the incoming fire, though a handful of missiles managed to land, causing minor damage to an Israeli military base and seriously wounding a young girl.

Then, on April 17, Israel appeared to fire back. Iranian state television said that air defense batteries fired in several provinces over reports of drones in the air. Iranian army commander General Abdolrahim Mousavi said crews targeted several flying objects.

The sudden volley of direct attacks raised tensions throughout the Middle East and the world, with many fearing they could lead to an explosion of larger conflict in that region. Some even worried the confrontation could be the start of World War III.

However, something else unusual took place: Israel and Iran both played down what happened. Incredibly, despite the apparent Israeli airstrike near a major air base and nuclear site in central Iran, the two bitter enemies seemed ready to prevent their latest eruption of violence from escalating into a full-blown regional war.

Yet the indecisive outcome of weeks of tensions did little to resolve the deeper grievances between the foes and left the door open to further fighting.

“It appears we’re closer than ever to a broad regional war, despite the fact that the international community will most likely make a great effort to de-escalate tensions,” wrote Amos Harel, the military-affairs commentator for the Israeli daily Haaretz.

Aftermath

Israel has long considered Iran to be its greatest enemy—citing the Islamic Republic’s calls for Israel’s destruction, its controversial nuclear program and its support for hostile proxies across the Middle East.

These tensions have risen since Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Iranian-backed Palestinian groups, attacked Israel on October 7, sparking a devastating Israeli offensive in Gaza that has continued for more than six months. Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed proxy in Lebanon, immediately began striking Israeli targets, opening up tit-for-tat fighting along a second front, while Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen have also fired missiles and drones at Israel throughout the war.

Isfahan, near the base that was fired at by air defenses, is home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including its underground Natanz enrichment site, which has been repeatedly targeted by suspected Israeli sabotage attacks. The base is also home to Iran’s fleet of American-made F-14 Tomcats purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The apparent attack came on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 85th birthday.

State television described all Iranian atomic sites in the areas as “fully safe.” The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, also said there was “no damage” to Iran’s nuclear sites.

Iranian officials made no mention of possible Israeli involvement. That could be intentional, particularly after Iranian officials for days had been threatening to respond to any Israeli retaliatory attack.

Israel also had no comment on the apparent attack, though one hard-line government minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, hinted at his dissatisfaction, with a one-word tweet, using a slang word for weak or lame.

But Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, said at a summit of Western leaders in Capri that the U.S. received “last-minute” information from Israel about the attack. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not dispute that but said: “We were not involved in any offensive operations.”

Yoel Guzansky, a former Iran expert in the Israeli prime minister’s office, said Israel appears to have carried out the attack to “check off a box” by sending a message to Iran without doing anything too provocative that could upset the United States, which had urged restraint, or spark further Iranian retaliation.

“It seems very limited, to send a message that ‘we can strike you inside of Iran,’” said Mr. Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank.

He said “the current round” of violence appears to be over, but that “nothing has changed” with Israel still facing Iranian-backed threats on various fronts.

“I see further rounds,” he said. And the next time, if Iran surprises Israel or allies do not assist in Israel’s defense, “the outcome will be different.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an end to the strikes. “It is high time to stop the dangerous cycle of retaliation in the Middle East,” his office said.

Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute and a longtime regional analyst, challenged Iran’s claims that drones carried out the attacks. It appears instead that a small number of Israeli aircraft flew from Israel over Syria—striking at least two southern Syria military bases that have air defense systems along the way, he said.

They then entered Iraqi airspace, from where they fired a small number of Blue Sparrow air-to-surface ballistic missiles, likely without ever entering Iranian airspace, Mr. Lister said.

Accounts of explosions over Iraq support that scenario, and so does debris from what appears to be the booster of an Israeli-made Blue Sparrow missile that Iraqi security found in a field outside Baghdad, Mr. Lister stated.

“In other words, the Israelis would never have needed to enter Iranian airspace to conduct this attack,” Mr. Lister said. “I think this was Israel’s way of just sending a message that we can reach you anywhere we want.”

“Neither side is ready to jump over the brink,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. But he added a major caveat.

“Probably we’re going to go back to the proxy war,” he said, but now it is a proxy war with the risk of “that sudden eruption of state-to-state war. Which we didn’t have to worry about before.”

Military Insights

As all sides took stock, regional security experts predicted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government and the country’s allies would emerge encouraged by the Israeli military’s performance. In response to international appeals, however, both Israel and Iran had appeared to be holding back their full military force throughout the more than two weeks of hostilities, aiming to send messages rather than escalate to a full-scale war.

Crucially, experts also cautioned that Iran had not brought into the main battle its greatest military advantage over Israel—Hezbollah and other Iran-allied armed groups in the region. Hezbollah in particular is capable of straining Israel’s ability to defend itself, especially in any multifront conflict.

Overall, “the big-picture lesson to take away is that unless Iran does absolutely everything at its disposal all at once, it is just the David, and not the Goliath, in this equation,” Mr. Lister said.

Aside from those Iranian proxy forces, “the Israelis have every single advantage on every single military level,” Mr. Lister stated.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a Washington-based center that promotes Israeli-U.S. security ties, pointed out that the final small strike underscored that Israel could do much more damage “should it decide to launch a larger strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.”

Iran’s barrage, by contrast, appears to have used up most of its 150 long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, more than 1,000 miles away, said retired General Frank McKenzie, former commander of the U.S. military’s Central Command.

Especially given the distance involved and how easy it is for the U.S. and others to track missile deployments by overhead space sensors and regional radar, “it is hard for Iran to generate a bolt from the blue against Israel,” Mr. McKenzie said.

Iran’s performance may have raised doubts about its ability to defend against future attacks, said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. Iran is about 80 times the size of Israel and thus has much more territory to defend, he noted. Plus, Israel demonstrated that it can rally support from powerful regional and international countries, both Arab and Western, to defend against Iran.

The two weeks of hostilities also provided the biggest showcase yet of the growing ability of Israel to work with Arab nations, its previous enemies, under the framework of U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East.

The U.S. under the Trump administration moved responsibility for its military coordination with Israel into Central Command, which already hosted U.S. military coordination with Arab countries. The Biden administration has worked to deepen the relationship.

Proxy Conflict Heats Up

Hezbollah is one of the most powerful militaries in the region, with tens of thousands of experienced fighters and a massive weapons arsenal. After an intense war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 that killed more than a thousand Lebanese civilians and dozens of Israeli civilians, both sides have held back from escalating to another full-scale conflict. But Israeli and Hezbollah militaries still routinely fire across each other’s borders during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Hezbollah “is Iran’s only remaining potential advantage in this whole broader equation,” Mr. Lister said.

Six months of fighting in Gaza have “completely stretched” Israel’s military, he added. “If Hezbollah went all out and launched the vast majority of its rocket and missile arsenal at Israel, all at once, the Israelis would seriously struggle to deal with that.”

And in terms of ground forces, if Hezbollah suddenly opened a second front, the Israel Defense Forces “would be incapable at this point” of fighting full-on with both Hezbollah and Hamas, Mr. Lister said.

In the months since Israel and Iran’s direct confrontation, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has heated up. Hezbollah’s attacks escalated after Israel expanded its offensive into the southern Gaza city of Rafah in May. In June, an Israeli strike destroyed a house where Hezbollah military commander Taleb Sami Abdullah and three other officials were meeting, about six miles from the border. The Israeli military said the attack was part of a strike on a Hezbollah command and control center used to direct attacks against Israel in recent months.

Hezbollah vowed to intensify its attacks along the Lebanon-Israel border to avenge the killing of its most senior commander by Israel since the latest round of violence began eight months ago on October 7.

“Our response after the martyrdom of Abu Taleb will be to intensify our operations in severity, strength, quantity and quality,” senior Hezbollah official Hachem Saffieddine said during a funeral ceremony for Taleb Sami Abdullah. “Let the enemy wait for us in the battlefield.”

On June 5, Hezbollah fired a massive barrage of rockets into northern Israel, further escalating tensions as the fate of an internationally backed plan for a cease-fire in Gaza was hanging in the balance.

Hezbollah has traded fire with Israel nearly every day since the Israel-Hamas war began and says it will only stop if there is a truce in Gaza. That has raised fears of a regional conflagration.

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon since October have killed over 400 people, most of them Hezbollah fighters, but the dead also include more than 70 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 15 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed since the war in Gaza began.

Abdullah’s sister Zeinab said her brother had been seeking “martyrdom for the past month,” adding that his death will encourage more young men to join the militant group. “May God destroy Israel,” she told The Associated Press.

A “Greater War”

The United States is trying to avert a greater war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said on June 18, following an escalation in cross-border fire between the foes along Lebanon’s southern frontier. The previous week, the group fired the largest volleys of rockets and drones of the hostilities so far at Israeli military sites. Mr. Hochstein said he had been dispatched to Lebanon immediately following a brief trip to Israel because the situation was “serious.”

“We have seen an escalation over the last few weeks. And what President Biden wants to do is avoid a further escalation to a greater war,” Mr. Hochstein stated.

He had said on May 30 he did not expect peace between Hezbollah and Israel but that a set of understandings could remove some of the impetus for conflict and establish a recognized border between Lebanon and Israel. Mr. Hochstein brokered an unlikely diplomatic deal between Lebanon and Israel in 2022 over their disputed maritime boundary.

“We’ve heard Israeli leaders say the solution that they prefer is a diplomatic solution. And obviously that is the solution that we prefer too and that we’re trying to pursue,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said. The United States deems Hezbollah a terrorist group.

Hezbollah has signaled its eventual openness to an agreement that benefits Lebanon, but has said there can be no discussions until Israel halts the Gaza offensive—something mediators are struggling to achieve.

Israel has also indicated its openness to a diplomatic settlement that would restore security in the north, where it borders Lebanon, while preparing for a military offensive to achieve the same goal.

“Whoever thinks that they can harm us and we will sit idly by is making a big mistake,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “In one way or another we will restore security to the north.”

The U.S. and France are engaged in diplomatic efforts to secure a negotiated end to the hostilities along Lebanon’s border. A French proposal submitted to Beirut in February included elite Hezbollah fighters withdrawing six miles from the frontier and negotiations aimed at settling disputes over the land border.

Mr. Hochstein met caretaker Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who told him that “Lebanon does not seek escalation”, according to comments issued by Mr. Mikati’s office.

The increase in attacks was followed by a brief respite during the Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday. Hezbollah then announced a drone attack against an Israeli tank. The recent attacks prompted UN officials in Lebanon to warn that the “danger of miscalculation leading to a sudden and wider conflict is very real.”

The situation remains volatile. In late June, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that the militant group has new weapons and intelligence capabilities that could help it target more critical positions deeper inside Israel in case of an all-out war.

“We now have new weapons. But I won’t say what they are,” he said in a televised address commemorating Abdullah. “When the decision is made, they will be seen on the front lines.”

Hezbollah has used locally made explosive drones, as well as surface-to-air missiles to chase off Israeli jets. Mr. Nasrallah said in 2021 that Hezbollah has 100,000 fighters but now he claimed the number is much higher, without elaborating. He also said he has rejected offers from allied countries and militias in the region that could add tens of thousands to his ranks.

A nearly 10-minute-long video allegedly filmed by a Hezbollah surveillance drone shows parts of Haifa—a city far from the Israel-Lebanon border. In his speech, Mr. Nasrallah said Hezbollah has much more footage—an apparent threat it could reach sites deep in Israel.

Israel’s military chief, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, visited Israeli air-defense soldiers near the border with Lebanon, saying Israel was aware of Hezbollah’s capabilities demonstrated in the video and has solutions for these threats.

“We of course have infinitely greater capabilities,” he said. “I think the enemy is only familiar with a few of them and [we] will confront them at the right time.” The Israeli army said it has “approved and validated” plans for an offensive in Lebanon, although the decision to actually launch such an operation would have to come from the country’s political leadership.

Mr. Nasrallah said a wider war with Lebanon would have regional implications and that Hezbollah would attack any other country in the region that assisted Israel in the war effort, citing Cyprus, which has hosted Israeli forces for training exercises. He suggested Cyprus might allow Israel to use its bases in event of a wider war.

Cypriot President Nikos Christo-doulides said his island nation “is in no way involved” in any military operations in the region. Cyprus is “part of the solution, not part of the problem,” he said, pointing out the Cyprus-Gaza maritime corridor used to deliver aid to the Palestinian territory.

Keep watching Israel’s tensions with Iran and its proxies. Time will tell to what degree the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will intensify, and whether Israel and Iran will one day engage in further direct confrontations.

This article contains information from Reuters and The Associated Press.